It’s been a while since I’ve posted any polling info. With all the media hoo-hah about the “surge” in support for Labour I thought I’d have a look to see how what’s happening here in Scotland compares with down South. Clue? It doesn’t.
Current Prediction for Scottish Westminster seats
Tories are completely routed from 6 seats to none. SNP would take three Conservative seats – Andrew Bowie, Alister Jack and Douglas Ross. 😆 They would also take a Jamie Stone’s Libdem seat in Caithness. And they’d lose Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath to Labour. Overall SNP gain 4 seats to take them to 52. Labour gain 4 seats to take them to 5. LibDems lose 2 seats to take them to 2.
The recent shift in Scotland:
Labour have gone up 9 points to 31% which is the highest level of support recorded by YouGov since they collapsed in 2015. Tories are down 7 points to 12%. But SNP are pretty well untouched, down by only 1 point at 45%.
There has been a gradual increase in Westminster voting intention for Labour since Boris Johnson took over in 2019. And clearly, Liz Truss has given them a significant boost in just a few weeks of being PM.
Meanwhile in UK as a whole:
That translates into a landslide, a massive landslide for Labour. A Labour majority of 292! This is from Electoral Calculus Poll of Polls .
Eight current ministers would lose their seats, including Rees-Mogg and Alister Jack. And Boris Johnson, Ian Duncan-Smith and Grant Shapps would also be out of Parliament.